Western Digital (WDC) is scheduled to report earnings after the close on Monday, and while the company is enthusiastic about a second half recovery, Morgan Stanley analysts said they are “convinced” that there is too much inventory for that to happen.

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“WD does have an offsetting tailwind as hard disk drive margins should recovery through the year, but still from a GAAP basis the company does not seem likely to be profitable,” the bank’s analysts said.

The analysts also said they see supply coming back seasonally in the second half, particularly in phones, but it does not seem to be enough to start drawing down excessive inventories. The bank remains a “cautious evenweight” on WDC.

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