In thie piece we will review the quality ratios and quant metrics for shares of Industrias Bachoco, S.A.B. de C.V. (IBA). Avid investors might be interested in how the quality ratios are stacking up for the Consumer Staples firm.  Robert Novy-Marx, a professor at the university of Rochester, discovered that gross profitability has as much power predicting stock returns as traditional value metrics. He found that while other quality measures had some predictive power, especially on small caps and in conjunction with value measures, gross profitability generates significant excess returns as a stand alone strategy, especially on large cap stocks.The Gross profitability for Industrias Bachoco, S.A.B. de C.V. (IBA) is 0.160042.

As soon as an individual decides what they want out of their investments, they can start formulating the best way to accomplish those goals. The time horizon for each investor may be different. Fluctuations in the financial markets can have a big effect on shorter-term investments. Investors that need a certain amount of money in a shorter amount of time may be looking to develop a stock market strategy with a bit less risk involved. On the other end of the spectrum, a younger investor with a longer time horizon might be able to search for stocks with a higher potential for growth that may involve much more risk. The volatility of today’s markets can test the nerves of any investor. Understanding volatility and market fluctuations can help the investor gauge their risk tolerance in the markets.

Professor Novy-Marx’s key insight was that you don’t need to go further down the income statement as these numbers may get manipulated with accounting tricks. To identify really profitable firms, one should look at the top line, not the bottom line. In one of his papers, Novy-Marx compares gross profitability to the other most famous strategies such as Greenblatt magic formula, Piortoski F-Score, etc.

When getting into the markets, most investors realize that riskier stocks may have an increased potential for higher returns. If investors decide to take a chance on some of these stocks, they may want to employ some standard techniques to help manage that risk. This may involve creating a diversified stock portfolio. Mixing up the portfolio with stocks from different sectors, market caps, and growth potential, may be the right move. In general, the goal is to maximize returns in accordance with the individual’s specific risk profile. It should be obvious that no matter how well rounded the portfolio is, there are always risks in the equity markets. Having a sound plan before investing can help ease the burden of knowing that markets can sometimes do crazy things without any rhyme or reason.  

Total Asset Growth

In their 2008 paper, professors Cooper, Gulen and Schill provided evidence that a firm’s assets growth rates are strong predictors of future abnormal returns.

“The findings suggest that corporate events associated with asset expansion (i.e., acquisitions, public equity offerings, public debt offerings, and bank loan initiations) tend to be followed by periods of abnormally low returns, whereas events associated with asset contraction (i.e., spin-offs, share repurchases, debt prepayments, and dividend initiations) tend to be followed by periods of abnormally high returns.” – Cooper, Gulen & Shill in Asset Growth and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns. In a study on US data during the period 1967-2007, they find that:

– A hedge portfolio rebalanced annually that is long (short) the stocks of companies with the lowest (highest) percentage growth in total assets over the previous 12 months generates an average annual return of 22%.
– This asset growth effect is stronger for small capitalization stocks, but is still substantial for large capitalization stocks.
– The effect is strongest in the month of January.
– Asset growth rate retains large explanatory power for future stock returns after accounting for firm size, book-to-market ratio and momentum. In fact the asset growth effect is at least as powerful in explaining returns as these other widely used factors.

We calculate asset growth as follows:

Total Asset Growth = (Total AssetsTotal Assets y-1) − 1. Industrias Bachoco, S.A.B. de C.V. (IBA) has a total asset growth number of 0.023299.

Net Debt to Market Cap

This ratio gives a sense of how much debt a company has relative to its market value. Companies with high debt levels compared to their peers can be volatile. We calculate it as follows:

Net Debt to Market Cap = (Total Debt−Cash and ST Investments) / Market Cap

Industrias Bachoco, S.A.B. de C.V. (IBA) has a net debt to market cap ratio of -0.136073.

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Altman Z Score

Industrias Bachoco, S.A.B. de C.V. (IBA) has an Altman Z score of 5.138954. The Z-Score for predicting bankruptcy was published in 1968 by Edward I. Altman, who was assistant professor of finance at New York University at that time. It measures the financial health of a company based on a set of income and balance sheet values. The Altman Z-Score predicts the probability that a firm will go bankrupt within 2 years. In its initial test, the Altman Z-Score was found to be 72% accurate in predicting bankruptcy two years before the event. In a series of subsequent tests, the model was found to be approximately 80%–90% accurate in predicting bankruptcy one year before the event

Atman built the model by applying the statistical method of discriminant analysis to a dataset of publicly held manufacturers. Since then he has published new versions based on other datasets for private manufacturing (Z’-Score), non-manufacturing, service companies and companies in emerging markets. (Z”-Score)

Please also note that the original dataset used was quite small and consisted of only 66 firms of which half filed for bankruptcy. All companies were manufacturers and small firms (total assets less than $1m) were removed.

Active investors are typically interested in the factors that drive stock price movements. Buying an individual stock means that you own a piece of the company. The hope is that the company does very well and becomes highly profitable. A profitable company may decide to do various things with the profits. They may reinvest profits back into the business, or they may choose to pay shareholders dividends from those earnings. Sometimes stocks may eventually become undervalued or overvalued. Spotting these trends may lead to further examination or the underlying fundamentals of the company. A company that continues to disappoint on the earnings front may have some issues that need to be addressed. It is highly important to make sure all the research is done on a stock, especially if the investor is heavily weighted on the name. Sometimes earnings reports may be good, but the stock price does not reflect that. Having a good understanding of the entire picture may help investors better travel the winding stock market road.

VC3

Value Composite Three (VC3) is another adaptation of O’Shaughnessy’s value composite but here he combines the factors used in VC1 with buyback yield. This factor is interesting for investors who’re looking for stocks with the best value characteristics, but are indifferent to whether these companies pay a dividend.

VC3 is the combination of the following factors:

Price-to-Book
Price-to-Earnings
Price-to-Sales
EBITDA/EV
Price-to-Cash flow
Buyback Yield

As with the VC1 and VC2, companies are put into groups from 1 to 100 for each ratio and the individual scores are summed up. This total score is then put into groups again from 1 to 100. 1 is cheap, 100 is expensive.

The scorecard also displays variants of the VC3 where the score is calculated for the selected company compared to peer companies in the same industry, industry group or sector.

Please note that we use Book-to-Market instead of P/B since it allows a more accurate sorting compared to P/B. Stocks with a high B/M show up at the top of the list, stocks with negative B/M are at the bottom of the list. For the same reason we use Earnings-to-Price instead of Price-to-Earnings and Cash flow-to-price instead instead of Price-to-cash flow.

Also important is that we always make sure that companies with the same score get added to the same percentile. For stock universes where the number of stocks is less than 100, we make sure that the stocks are still allocated to percentiles from 0 to 100 instead of 0 to the total number of stocks. This is particularly relevant for the industry, industry group or sector variants where if additional filters are used, the number of stocks often drops below 100.

Industrias Bachoco, S.A.B. de C.V. (IBA) has a VC3 of 17.

As we sail into the second half of the calendar year, investors may be looking to see what has gone right and what has gone wrong so far this year. Making necessary changes to some holdings may help position investors for the next couple of quarters. Being able to cut the riskier losers and take some profits from winners may help solidify the stock portfolio. As we run through the next round of company earnings reports, investors will be keeping a close eye on the data that is reported. Investors may be looking to buy companies that continue to post beats on the earnings front, and cut ties with ones that are not hitting their marks.     

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